김치프리미엄의 시대는 가고 홍콩프리미엄의 시대가 도래?

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최근 홍콩의 범죄인 중국송환관련 법안 문제로 대규모 항의시위가 계속되고 있는 가운데, 홍콩에서의 비트코인의 가격이 전세계 평균시세보다 100달러 정도 높게 형성되고 있다.
The Cryptocurrency Post에 따르면, 시위가 한창이었던 지난 주 홍콩에서의 비트코인은 3,100홍콩달러(미화 9,337달러) 였는데, 당시 코인마켓캡에서의 비트코인가격은 미화 9,182달러였다.

이는 사회/경제적으로 불안한 상황에서는 사람들이 안전한 자산을 확보하려 하거나 해외로 자본을 유출하고자 하는데, 과거에는 금이나 미국달러가 그러한 역할을 하였다면, 지금은 도난당할 위험이 상대적으로 낮고 해외에서 현금화가 가능한 비트코인이 선호되기 때문일 것이다.
이러한 현상은 암호화폐를 실물경제에 활용하는 국가가 늘어날 수록 가속화 될 것이다.

어제 오늘 홍콩의 상황이 다소 안정되자 비트코인의 가격이 글로벌 시세와 비슷해졌다. 결국 홍콩프리미엄의 시대가 도래한 것 아닌가하는 우려는 기우였던 것이다.

오늘 현재 비트코인의 시세는 CoinMarketCap의 평균시세가 $9,286.98이고 Binance가 $9,285.56, CoinBene $9,286.73, DigiFinex $9,284.47 인 반면, 한국의 Upbit는 $9445.14, Coinone $9,449.42, Bithumb $9,448.56으로 김치프리미엄은 여전한 것으로 판단된다.

홍콩프리미엄은 사회불안에 따른 일시적인 현상이지만, 김치프리미엄은 다소 차이가 있다. 한국은 최근 남북관계가 좋아지고 있고, 경제적으로도 안정되었음에도 김치프리미엄은 여전하다. 글로벌 경제상황이야 전반적으로 안좋기 때문에 그것이 한국만의 문제가 될 수는 없다.
결국 김치프리미엄의 원인은 사회경제적 문제가 아닌 행정리스크에 기인한다고 본다. 다시말해서 암호화폐 관련 법이나 규정이 전무한 상태에서 검찰의 ICO전면 금지, 금융당국의 거래소 규제 등으로 인해 비트코인의 공급이 수요보다 상대적으로 적기 때문에 발생되는 문제라고 볼 수 있다. 해외에서는 카드 결제나 페이팔 등의 대체 결제수단을 통해서 거래소에의 입출금이 자유로운 반면, 한국은 국내은행을 통한 입출금만 가능하고, 해외 거래소에의 송금은 은행에서 막혀있어 결국 비트코인이나 이더리움, 또는 USDT를 국내거래소에서 구입하여 해외거래소로 이체후 거래를 해야한다. 이러한 이유로 수요가 공급보다 클 수 밖에 없고, 때문에 김치프리미엄이 발생하게 되는 것이다.

한국의 이러한 상황은 공무원들의 복지부동한 자세 때문에 오랫동안 지속될 것이라 판단된다.

2019. 06.20 by K.D.J

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